2024 polls: Majority of voters say Trump should be disqualified

Before the election of Donald Trump, it would have been more or less unthinkable for a Republican to be criticised for invoking Ronald Reagan.

But as college graduates move towards the Democrats and more socially conservative working-class voters towards the GOP, Republican candidates can no longer invoke the Golden State governor and B-list actor and be sure that whatever they say will be a slam dunk.

South Carolina Senator Tim Scott figured this out the hard way on the campaign trail. As both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump speak to the United Auto Workers Union this week, both of them will attempt to appear to be on the side of the workers.

Mr Scott was hit with a complaint from the union after he was asked about his view of the labour negotiations following the UAW’s decision to strike against the Big Three automakers.

“Ronald Reagan gave us a great example when federal employees decided they were going to strike,” he said.

Mr Reagan fired thousands of air traffic controllers after they went on strike in 1981.

“He said, ‘You strike, you’re fired.’ Simple concept to me. To the extent that we can use that once again, absolutely,” Mr Scott said in Iowa earlier this month, even as the GOP has come to rely more and more on blue-collar workers.

But the Republican Party today remains anti-union, especially when considering what General Dwight Eisenhower told the American Federation of Labor when he was running for president in 1952.

“Today in America unions have a secure place in our industrial life,” he said. “Only a handful of unreconstructed reactionaries harbour the ugly thought of breaking unions. Only a fool would try to deprive working men and women of the right to join the union of their choice.”

Fifty-one per cent said that Mr Trump is prevented from running under the 14th Amendment because he was part of an insurrection following the 2020 election.

Before the survey respondents were asked about disqualifying Mr Trump, they were asked a number of questions concerning the Constitution and Mr Trump’s behaviour after the last presidential election.

Thirty-four per cent said that Mr Trump should not be disqualified.

A poll by The Washington Post and ABC has been blasted by observers after it showed former President Donald Trump 10 points ahead of President Joe Biden.

The director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, pollster Larry Sabato, wrote on X: “Ignore the Washington Post – ABC poll. It’s a ridiculous outlier (Trump up 10 over Biden—laughable). My question: How could you even publish a poll so absurd on its face? Will be a lingering embarrassment for you.”

The chief political analyst at The New York Times, Nate Cohn, wrote: “It’s really really hard to release outlying poll results, so you’ve got to give credit to ABC/Post here, but I do have a fairly major quibble with ABC/Post here: if you release consecutive ‘outlying’ poll results — R+7 in May, R+10 today — you don’t get to dismiss your results.”

The poll by The Washington Post and ABC does show Mr Trump with a 10-point over Mr Biden, but The Post itself writes that “the sizable margin of Trump’s lead in this survey is significantly at odds with other public polls that show the general election contest a virtual dead heat. The difference between this poll and others, as well as the unusual makeup of Trump’s and Biden’s coalitions in this survey, suggest it is probably an outlier”.

Mr Cohn added: “If it happens twice in a row in the same race, it’s clear that this is the result of some element of your approach, and either you either need to decide you’re good with it and defend it or you need to go home.”

Polling from The Washington Post and ABC News shows ex-president Donald Trump with a 10 percentage point lead over President Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election.

The survey, which asked 1,006 US adults about their preference for either candidate in a general election showed voters responded 52 per cent for Mr Trump and 42 per cent for Mr Biden.

These findings are an increase in favorability for Mr Trump since the same survey was conducted in May.

According to the survey of 2,107 Granite State voters by CNN and the University of New Hampshire Survey Centre, Mr Biden tops former president Donald Trump among voters there by a margin of 52 per cent to 40 per cent.

Mr Biden also holds a commanding lead among primary voters there despite not being permitted to campaign there by Democratic Party rules which make next year’s South Carolina primary the party’s first official presidential contest.

Among New Hampshire Democrats, Mr Biden has support from 78 per cent of them, while his two declared Democratic primary opponents — author Marianne Williamson and anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist Robert F Kennedy Jr — each poll in single digits.

The president’s lead among primary voters in the Granite State stands in stark contrast to national poll, many of which show him tied with Mr Trump or trailing by single-digit margins.

A number of recent polls reveal that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is losing ground in the Republican primary.

The polls show Mr DeSantis dropping both on the national level and in the early voting states.

Mr DeSantis received 10 per cent in the polls while former president Donald Trump got 39 per cent, while biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy got 13 per cent support, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley got 12 per cent, and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie got 11 per cent.

In Iowa, the first state to vote, a poll by Fox Business also published on Wednesday, put Mr DeSantis in second place at 15 per cent support, while Mr Trump was more than 30 points ahead.

Ms Haley came in third at 11 per cent.

On the national level, Mr DeSantis was at 12 per cent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll published last week. Mr Trump was 50 points ahead on the national level.

Donald Trump has widened his lead in the Republican primary over the last few months, according to a polling average calculated by FiveThirtyEight.

As of 19 September, this is how the polls weigh the candidates’ support:

• Donald Trump: 55.8%
• Ron DeSantis: 14.6%
• Vivek Ramaswamy: 7.8%
• Nikki Haley: 6.4%
• Mike Pence: 4.8%
• Chris Christie: 2.8%
• Tim Scott: 2.5%
• Asa Hutchinson: 0.5%
• Doug Burgum: 0.4%
• Will Hurd: 0.3%

President Joe Biden is lagging behind former President Donald Trump and several other Republican candidates, including former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, a new poll outlining a number of hypothetical 2024 general election matchups shows.

The survey from Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll revealed that 44 per cent of respondents said they would vote for Mr Trump, while 40 per cent said they would back Mr Biden. Another 15 per cent said they were unsure.

A Harvard CAPS-Harris poll found in July that Mr Trump was supported by 45 per cent and Mr Biden by 40 per cent.

In a matchup with Ms Haley, 41 per cent said they would vote for the former South Carolina governor, while 37 per cent said they would vote for Mr Biden.

When facing Mr Scott, Mr Biden also received 37 per cent while Mr Scott got 39 per cent.

In the Biden-Haley poll, 21 per cent of respondents said they were unsure – 25 per cent said so when Mr Biden went up against Mr Scott.

Against former Vice President Mike Pence, Mr Biden came out on top with 42 per cent to Mr Pence’s 36 per cent.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was also behind the president – 42 to 38 per cent, as was biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who received 37 per cent to Mr Biden’s 39 per cent.

In all of those hypothetical races, at least 20 per cent said they were unsure.

Poll co-director Mark Penn told The Hill: “No question that President Joe Biden is showing lagging national poll numbers and that now multiple GOP candidates are ahead of him. This is a new development as [non-Trump] potential opponents like Haley get exposure.”

President Joe Biden’s approval rating has risen to its highest level since March – 42 per cent – according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.

The increasing support stems from Democratic voters coalescing around Mr Biden as House Republicans launch an impeachment inquiry.

Eighty per cent of Democrats approved of Mr Biden while 91 per cent of Republicans disapproved.