Biden and Trump tied in new poll against independents – latest

The independent presidential bid launched by anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist Robert F Kennedy Jr after dropping out of the Democratic primary may help President Joe Biden beat Republican frontrunner and former President Donald Trump in 2024, a poll has shown.

Democrats have previously shared concerns that the RFK campaign may harm Mr Biden.

When Mr Kennedy Jr is included, 44 per cent backed Mr Biden to Mr Trump’s 37 per cent, giving Mr Biden a lead of seven per cent.

The director of Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, Lee Miringoff, said in a statement: “Although it’s always tricky to assess the impact of a third-party candidate, right now Kennedy alters the equation in Biden’s favour.”

“What this does speak to, however, is that about one in six voters are looking for another option, especially independents,” the director added.

A new Fox News poll, conducted earlier this month, shows that Mr Trump has four times the support of his nearest rival, Florida governor Ron DeSantis, among Republican primary voters.

Mr Trump is lapping the competition, leading with 59 per cent support among polled voters, compared with Mr DeSantis’s 13 per cent support.

Nikki Haley, the former US ambassador to the United Nations, is the only other candidate to crack double digits, with 10 per cent support, while support for former vice president Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, and US senator Tim Scott is so minimal it’s mostly swallowed by the poll’s margin of error.

But it’s been this way for months, with Mr Trump leading and the occasional shifting of second and third place in the Republican race.

53 per cent of Biden voters said they could not think of anything that would make them not support the president’s re-election, compared to 17 per cent who said there could be something that could change their vote.

The poll participants were also asked about the rivals’ previous elections.

In this same voting group, 61 per cent said they think the former president won “fair and square” in 2016, while only 52 per cent say the same about Mr Biden’s win in 2020.

Another poll this week showed Mr Biden and Mr Trump as head-to-head in Nevada. The CNN poll found that 46 per cent of voters back the current president while 45 per cent prefer his predecessor.

Despite facing federal and state legal challenges including four separate sets of criminal charges, Mr Trump has remained at the top of the GOP polls. He is vying for the Republican nomination in a crowded field, which also includes entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, Florida Gov Ron DeSantis, South Carolina Sen Tim Scott, former New Jersey Gov Chris Christie, North Dakota Gov Doug Burgum, and former Arkansas Gov Asa Hutchinson.

The Emerson College 11 October poll revealed the former president had 45 per cent of the vote compared to Mr Biden’s 36 per cent. Eleven per cent of the participants said they would vote for “someone else” while eight percent remained undecided.

Mr Biden won the state in 2020 by a slim margin, which prompted Mr Trump to challenge his loss, which ultimately was rejected in the courts.

According to the poll, 50 per cent of Trump voters said they can’t think of anything the former president might do in the near future that would make them choose not to support him in 2024.

Meanwhile, 22 per cent said they can think of something he might say or do to sway their vote away from Mr Trump.

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley raised over $11m from July to September, her campaign has said, further boosting her chances of being the person to take on current favourite Donald Trump.

The former South Carolina governor is vying for position with Ron DeSantis, having recently taken the lead in some polls with just over three months to go before the first GOP nominating contest in Iowa.

Despite her increased haul – up from $7.3m last quarter – Ms Haley still lags behind the Florida governor in terms of fundraising, and even further behind former president Trump.

Ms Haley’s campaign said she had attracted nearly 40,000 new donors in the third quarter alone and that she had $9.1m cash on hand. It follows strong performances in both GOP debates and a tireless campaign schedule.

“We have seen a big surge in support and have real momentum,” Haley spokesperson Olivia Perez-Cubas said in a statement.

Donald Trump and Joe Biden are close to being tied in a new CNN poll of Nevada, revealing that the state is set to be a battleground yet again in 2024.

Nevada is also the first western state to hold its GOP primary contest in February, possibly strengthening Mr Trump’s overwhelming lead.

The CNN poll, conducted by SRSS, found that 46 per cent of voters back the current president while 45 per cent prefer his predecessor.

Mr Biden won Nevada in 2020 by just two percentage points. Among those supporting the Democrat, more than half – 55 per cent – said their vote would be more against Mr Trump than in support of Mr Biden. Forty-four per cent said their vote was motivated more by their support for the president.

Among those backing Mr Trump, 63 per cent their vote was a show of support for the former president.

The Nevada caucuses on 8 February next year are set to be the third GOP primary contest. Mr Trump currently has the support of 65 per cent of likely GOP voters.

“I don’t think any of it matters,” Mr DeSantis told the press at a recent event. “You’ve got to put yourself in a position to have the type of infrastructure needed to do well when the voting starts. But what’s going to happen is none of the polls are going to matter when people start voting. That’s what’s going to determine everything.”

“I think at the end of the day, a majority of people have not made a decision,” he told Fox News Digital. “So if you’re polling someone, and you push them, well if they’re kind of on the fence and they know Trump more than anyone, they’re more likely to do that.”

He added, “If you really pull down, half the electorate is up for grabs in these states, and we’re going to earn the votes in all of those states. We have the organization, we have the work ethic, and we have the message to be able to get it done”.

A new poll has revealed that voters are pessimistic about the state of American democracy and the peaceful transfer of power that faced the most serious attack in recent times on January 6, 2021.

Almost half said they expect a similar incident to the 2021 insurrection to take place after the next election.

Forty-six per cent said violence is very or somewhat likely after the 2024 election – 53 per cent of Democrats, 45 per cent of independents, and 42 per cent of Republicans.

A Pennsylvania poll has revealed that Black and Latino voters strongly support President Joe Biden in a 2024 showdown with former President Donald Trump.

The Susquehanna Polling and Research Inc survey revealed that 80 per cent of Black voters would back Mr Biden, while 19 per cent said they would vote for Mr Trump.

Mr Biden won back Pennsylvania for the Democrats in 2020 by a margin of 1.2 per cent, with the president getting the support of 92 per cent of Black voters, according to a CNN exit poll.

Seventy-four per cent of Black voters said they would back Mr Biden to be the Democratic nominee in 2024, while nine per cent said they preferred anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist Robert Kennedy Jr. Mr Kennedy is expected to launch an independent campaign for president.

Eighty-one per cent of Latino Pennsylvanians said they would support Mr Biden, compared to 19 per cent who said they would vote for Mr Trump.

Mr DeSantis and Donald Trump have been the only two names to pull significant numbers in polling since the Republican presidential primary began. While Mr Trump commands a significant lead over Mr DeSantis, the Florida governor was still the clear favorite among candidates who sought to challenge the former president.

For a short time, the party seemed to be warming to anti-woke businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, but polling has cooled, and likely due in no small part to the lashing he received at the hands of Ms Haley.

A Suffolk University/Boston Globe/USA Today survey released on Wednesday shows Ms Haley beating Mr DeSantis, 19 per cent to 10 per cent. The voters in that poll were all from New Hampshire, where the first primary of election season sets the stage for the rest of the year and can provide a significant national boost to whichever candidate comes out on top.

Mr DeSantis was the favoured candidate to challenge Mr Trump, but his popularity has waned as the primary season continues. A Yahoo News/YouGov poll from the end of August showed an 11 per cent drop in Mr DeSantis’ support — from 23 per cent to 12 per cent.