Last month, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence warned in its Annual Threat Assessment that China is intensifying its “efforts to mold U.S. public discourse” and will also likely continue to “apply military and economic pressure as well as public messaging and influence activities while promoting long-term cross-Strait economic and social integration to … Read more
Taiwan is now a geopolitical hotspot. Bloomberg Economics assesses the global economic impact of a war over Taiwan at $10 trillion – dwarfing the blow from the war in Ukraine or the COVID-19 pandemic. Some nations are trying economically and militarily to deter China from reunifying Taiwan by force. In fact, the best deterrent is … Read more
April 3 began as a typical day for the people of Taiwan. Workers and students set out on their usual commutes as cities across the island bustled with the usual activities of daily life. At 7:58 a.m. local time, during the peak of morning rush hour, a 7.4-magnitude earthquake struck off the east coast of … Read more
In shaping patterns of future warfare, there is little doubt that militaries across the world will be seeking to absorb the key lessons of the Russia-Ukraine War, ranging from the employment of tanks to the use of anti-ship cruise missiles and the ubiquitous drones. For the Chinese military, these lessons might even assume a greater … Read more
Is a Chinese invasion of Taiwan tomorrow’s Ukraine war? The parallels between the two cases, where a revisionist power stands poised to pounce on a vulnerable neighbor, make it a scenario that is now feared by many. Sometimes, an invasion of Taiwan by China is even treated almost as a foregone conclusion, a question of … Read more
The era of great power “strategic competition” has seen deterrence as both a concept and operational objective return to a place of pre-eminence in national defense and strategic policy not seen since the end of the Cold War. While much attention has been given to the technological advances of China’s military – which the United … Read more
Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered his anticipated New Year speech in a “fireside chat” statement, revealing shades of the Communist Party’s political psychology, highlighting key achievements in 2023, and outlining priorities for 2024. Most notably, Xi declared that “China will surely be reunified,” highlighting an alarming and rapidly growing ambition that suggests potential aggressions toward … Read more
On the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leader’s Meeting in San Francisco last month, Chinese leader Xi Jinping told U.S. President Joe Biden that Taiwan is the “biggest” and “most dangerous issue” between the United States and China. In response, Biden asserted the U.S. commitment to defending “Indo-Pacific allies.” Should the U.S. … Read more
Amid Russia’s recent incursion into Ukraine, there’s a prevailing belief that such actions may foreshadow a potential Chinese military move toward Taiwan. However, this perspective may not fully capture Beijing’s approach. “I do think that Xi Jinping doesn’t actually want to take Taiwan by force. He will try to use other ways to do this,” … Read more
Advertisement The Philippines’ President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. took office in June 2022; since then, the specter of a cross-strait crisis has loomed large. One of the first regional foreign policy crises that Marcos had to address was the aftermath of then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan that August. At just about 160 kilometers … Read more