Last month, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence warned in its Annual Threat Assessment that China is intensifying its “efforts to mold U.S. public discourse” and will also likely continue to “apply military and economic pressure as well as public messaging and influence activities while promoting long-term cross-Strait economic and social integration to … Read more
Taiwan is now a geopolitical hotspot. Bloomberg Economics assesses the global economic impact of a war over Taiwan at $10 trillion – dwarfing the blow from the war in Ukraine or the COVID-19 pandemic. Some nations are trying economically and militarily to deter China from reunifying Taiwan by force. In fact, the best deterrent is … Read more
On January 31, FBI Director Christopher Wray testified to Congress that China’s cyber actors are positioning to “wreak havoc” against U.S. critical infrastructure, likely to prevent the United States from aiding Taiwan in the event of conflict. Security analysts suggest that in a “short, sharp war” against Taiwan, China’s cyber forces would decapitate command and … Read more
Is a Chinese invasion of Taiwan tomorrow’s Ukraine war? The parallels between the two cases, where a revisionist power stands poised to pounce on a vulnerable neighbor, make it a scenario that is now feared by many. Sometimes, an invasion of Taiwan by China is even treated almost as a foregone conclusion, a question of … Read more
In the grand theater of global geopolitics, a complex narrative is unfolding, weaving together the fates of the Middle East, the Taiwan Strait, and the burgeoning superpower rivalry between China and the United States. This intricate saga, underscored by China’s rising influence, Iran’s regional ambitions, and Taiwan’s precarious position, offers a profound glimpse into the … Read more
The infamous Munich Agreement, signed in September 1938, allowed Germany to annex the Sudetenland, a region of Czechoslovakia, in response to Adolf Hitler’s territorial claims and border clashes. Initially perceived as a diplomatic success, the appeasement strategy aimed to prevent a larger European conflict, with the hope that Hitler would adhere to his promise not … Read more
On the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leader’s Meeting in San Francisco last month, Chinese leader Xi Jinping told U.S. President Joe Biden that Taiwan is the “biggest” and “most dangerous issue” between the United States and China. In response, Biden asserted the U.S. commitment to defending “Indo-Pacific allies.” Should the U.S. … Read more
There is a common saying in Taiwan, “flog both sides 50 times.” It refers to the act of trying to find two sides of a dispute equally at fault, so as to neutralize the conflict. But the phrase is not used to applaud someone for moving past finger-pointing to bring peace. Rather, it is used … Read more
When U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping hold their much-anticipated summit this evening, the question of Taiwan will loom large. For decades, all three sides have solved the problem between them by effectively shelving it, but that may not be a viable option for much longer. Preserving the status quo has been … Read more
Advertisement Tensions between China and the United States over Taiwan, the single most volatile issue in the bilateral relationship, will likely remain stable through the end of this year. But tensions will probably rise again in early 2024, perhaps to their highest level since the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) normalized … Read more