Stage 18 of the 2023 Tour de France is officially classified as “hilly” but in truth this is a relatively flat ride heading north-west from the Alps, carving through the gap between Lyon and Geneva to the finish at Bourg en Brasse.
There awaits a fast, technical finish, with roundabouts and a sharp corner before a swinging right-hand turn on to the home straight where the stage will be won and lost.
Jasper Philipsen is the strong favourite to win his fifth stage of this Tour having taken a clean sweep of the sprints so far. At this point in the race his rivals are few and far between: Mark Cavendish crashed out with a broken collarbone, Australian sprinter Caleb Ewan abandoned with fatigue, while Wout van Aert went home yesterday to be with his wife for the birth of their second child.
There are still some opponents Philipsen may need to outsprint: Dylan Groenewegen hasn’t made much of an impact on this race but has Tour stage wins on his palmares, while former world champion Mads Pedersen has already won once here on stage eight.
There is also the possibility of a breakaway escaping up the road and staying away to claim the win amongst themselves. Such is Philipsen’s dominance that not many teams want to see a bunch sprint finish, so his Alpecin-Deceuninck teammates will have to do a lot of the work on the front of the peloton to bring back the breakaway.
If they manage it, Philipsen can rely on the great Mathieu van der Poel to drive his leadout train and present him at the finish to seal the deal.
For the man in the yellow jersey, Jonas Vingegaard, it’s a day to recover weary legs and stay out of trouble.
Stage 18 route map and profile
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Start time
The stage is set to begin at 12.00pm BST and is expected to finish at around 4.30pm.
Prediction
Jasper Philipsen looks about as close to unbeatable as a sprinter gets at a race like the Tour de France. This is his stage to lose.